The hottest time is approaching, and the environme

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The time is coming! Great changes have taken place in the environmental protection industry, and more than 30000 enterprises are facing exit.

recently, there are more and more fallen enterprises and enterprises with problems in the environmental protection industry, and many friends who are engaged in environmental protection are beginning to feel a little anxious. Last night, I had dinner with a friend who was working on environmental protection projects and equipment in Jiangxi. I asked him how to see the current development of the environmental protection industry. His view was very unexpected. His anxiety does not lie in the fact that most of the springs are used as the main components of machinery and vehicles. In his opinion, the recently fallen environmental protection enterprises are basically "not dead without death"

compared with these problems, he talked about his real anxiety. Three years later, the environmental protection industry will almost inevitably experience a cliff like slowdown. A large number of enterprises will disappear in three years, and the number of employees in industries with existing structures will also be greatly reduced

the veteran agrees with him very much on this issue. If we comb through the three categories of policies of the environmental protection industry, we will find that the 2020 deadline of the environmental protection industry is coming. At the same time, many signs of the environmental protection industry have also shown that such a change is taking place

in three years (maybe two years), the vast majority of enterprises in the environmental protection industry will inevitably become the "history" of the industry

the deadline of water, gas and solid waste policy is approaching

2020 of the environmental protection industry is coming

ten water regulations, water pollution prevention and control plan for key river basins (year), national groundwater pollution prevention and control plan (year), etc.

by 2020, the proportion of class III water in seven key river basins will reach more than 70%

the black and odorous water body in cities at prefecture level and above shall be controlled within 10%; The proportion of urban centralized drinking water source quality reaching or better than Class III is generally higher than 93%

the proportion of extremely poor groundwater quality in China is controlled at about 15%

the proportion of excellent water quality (class I and class II) in offshore waters reaches about 70%

the inferior class V in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region decreased by 15 percentage points

by 2020, 130000 newly established villages will have completed comprehensive environmental improvement

by 2020, all counties and key towns in China will have sewage collection and treatment capacity, and the sewage treatment rates of counties and cities will reach about 85% and 95% respectively

the harmless treatment and disposal rate of municipal sludge at prefecture level and above should reach more than 90% by the end of 2020

the harmless treatment and disposal rate of municipal sludge at prefecture level and above should reach more than 90% by the end of 2020

by 2020, the total emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides will be reduced by more than 15% compared with 2015, respectively

pm2.5 concentrations in cities at prefecture level and above that failed to meet the standard decreased by more than 18% compared with 2015

the ratio of days with excellent air quality in cities at prefecture level and above reached 80%, and the ratio of days with severe pollution and above decreased by more than 25% compared with 2015

by 2020, establish and improve the management system of VOCs Pollution Prevention and control with the improvement of ambient air quality as the core, implement the emission reduction of VOCs Pollution in key areas and industries, and reduce the total emission by more than 10%

by the end of 2020, we will fully implement the pollutant discharge permit system in key VOCs emission industries such as electronics, packaging and printing, automobile manufacturing, etc

the ten articles of the earth, the 13th five year plan for ecological environment protection, the implementation plan for the domestic waste classification system

the safe utilization rate of polluted cultivated land is about 90%, and the safe utilization rate of polluted land is more than 90%

by 2020, the national comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste will increase to 73%

by 2020, the comprehensive utilization rate of straw will reach 85%, and the national modern agricultural demonstration areas and major grain producing counties will basically realize the recycling of agricultural resources

by 2020, all cities will fully implement the waste classification system, basically establish the corresponding laws, regulations and standard system, and public institutions will generally implement waste classification. As the pilot cities, 46 cities will initially build waste classification and treatment systems

the emission of heavy metals in key industries in 2020 will decrease by 10% compared with that in 2013

by the end of 2020, all counties (cities and districts) of soil environmental quality monitoring points will be covered

essence of the environmental industry in the 1.0 era

the main business of the existing environmental industry in the 1.0 era focuses on the end treatment, that is, the treatment of the pollution generated, which is what we now call the environmental protection industry. With the tightening of policies, the market space has shown a sharp decline trend, which also means that the market scale of pollutants that need to be treated will almost no longer have a significant growth

so the competition among the existing environmental protection industry is actually a zero sum game. If you take more projects, others will have less. Or if you don't spare no effort to reserve more projects, you won't want to reserve any more

based on the current situation, it is not difficult to understand why many large companies have to go to great lengths to get projects. It is hard for you to imagine how to achieve them. In their eyes, this is the whole of the environmental protection industry

from the perspective of developed countries, the environmental protection industry focusing on governance will indeed face rapid shrinkage after reaching its peak

the era of environmental industry 1.0 will end with a shopping spree

the current trend of the environmental protection industry from small and scattered to large and strong is ongoing. There are winners and losers, which can be roughly divided into the following outcomes:

natural elimination of the game

more than 50000 large and small enterprises in the environmental protection industry, of which more than 90% are small and medium-sized enterprises and small and micro enterprises, The survival of these enterprises depends entirely on the dividends of the current industry 1.0 era. In this era, the requirements for technology and products are not so high, and the threshold is very low. Therefore, a large number of small enterprises have been produced as supporting facilities

these enterprises were born with the era of environmental industry 1.0 and will end with the end of the era of 1.0. These enterprises are unable to transform and upgrade and can only be eliminated naturally. It is conservatively estimated that the number of these enterprises will exceed 30000

renewal of life through strong alliance

strong alliance should be an important way for existing enterprises to enter the next stage. This way ensures the advantages of enterprises in terms of capital, technology and even resources, and can relatively safely get tickets for the second half. In the first half of this year, the number and scale of 50 M & as in the environmental protection industry totaling 3.4 billion have exceeded that of last year. Leading enterprises are sensible people

through the drastic reshuffle, the market originally occupied by the weak will be released, and the market scale occupied by the leading enterprises in the industry will become larger and larger

at present, what we are doing is just the tip of the iceberg of the environmental industry

in the era of environmental industry 2.0, the future transformation direction of enterprises

the environmental protection industry is very similar to the real estate industry to some extent, with the following characteristics:

1 The stock market is relatively limited, and the development is over

2. Service is the future of industry development

3. There are still opportunities for consumption upgrading in subdivided industries

in the development stage, the real estate industry should lead the environmental protection industry by stages

if you look closely, you will find that the domestic real estate enterprises, especially the leading enterprises, have entered the era of refined operation from the era of brutal expansion

from development to operation services, from large and comprehensive to segmented areas, from low-end consumption to high-end consumption. For example, Vanke's current strategy is urban supporting service provider, Evergrande's strategy is "real estate + service industry", and SOHO's strategy is China's leading office building operator

the core of its transformation is from development to service. The environmental protection industry will also face the same situation in three years. Entrepreneurs with a long view and strategic awareness in the industry have begun to be vigilant in times of peace, and have laid out corresponding environmental service fields. The era dominated by environmental service industry has become the era of environmental industry 2.0

in fact, from the development of the leading enterprises in the environmental protection industry in the first half of this year, it can be clearly seen that the enterprises engaged in operation and service have realized leading advantages in terms of profitability and enterprise operation risk. For example, Hanlan environment, which mainly focuses on operation, achieved a net profit of nearly 500million in the first half of 2018, far exceeding 350million in the first half of 2018, which is the leading water source

it is an inevitable trend for the industry to shift from environmental protection to environmental services in the next few years. If the five-year premise is still early, now is the right time

veterans believe that environmental services will become the main market of the industry in three years. In the environmental services sector, a new generation of leading enterprises in the industry will emerge in the following directions:

the era of environmental protection effects with the improvement of environmental quality as the starting point will promote the transformation of government environmental policies into comprehensive prevention and control of regional non-point sources. With the establishment of the idea of comprehensive environmental management, the net financial liabilities of comprehensive services on June 30, 2014 was 9.9 billion euros, which has increasingly become the core element for enterprises to participate in the competition in the environmental protection market. As a result, many environmental protection enterprises have transformed from a single service-oriented "equipment manufacturer" to a "comprehensive environmental service provider"

1. The stock market operation of sewage plants

at present, there are more than 4000 domestic sewage plants, and both the quantity and capacity are close to saturation. The construction era of sewage treatment plant is almost over, and the remaining work will be to raise the standard and operate. In the direction of operation, industry giants still have a very sensitive sense of smell. Compared with engineering, the money from operation is less risky and more sustainable

the operation of the existing sewage plant stock market has become the focus of each company

2. Environmental monitoring ushers in explosive development

the environmental protection tax law will be levied at the beginning of 2018. Enterprise emission reduction data will be the key to determine whether enterprises can reduce taxes, or pay taxes, and how much taxes they need to pay. That is, there should be monitoring data for taxation, and monitoring equipment or third-party monitoring services should be installed

just like every household needs an electricity meter, monitoring will become a necessary link in the environmental industry, and this market space will burst out at an exponential rate. We can see that Midea, a strong crossover, has made in-depth layout in these directions

3. In the upstream layout, the pollution source of green production in the tob field comes from production. The current end treatment can be understood as that we are paying off our debts and the previous development debts. When the debt is paid off, we should finally focus on the production end to control the generation and emission of pollutants from the production source

therefore, fundamentally speaking, green production is the essence of the environmental industry, controlling or directly solving pollution from the source. At present, the vast majority of what we are doing is end-to-end governance, which will soon end as the policy and accountability become stricter. The existing businesses in the environmental protection industry must move forward to provide solutions for green production, which is an inevitable trend

4. The market is sinking. President Xi said that the gap between the people's yearning for a better life and our reality is a contradiction that needs to be solved urgently. This actually contains two meanings: one is to enable the people in backward areas to achieve a well-off life; the other is to further upgrade the consumption in developed areas. On the one hand, due to incorrect installation

the consumption upgrading of the latter is a huge opportunity for the environmental industry. From drinking water to breathing air to the soil for growing food, the released market will be several times larger than the current environmental protection market, and more importantly, the sustainability of this market will be stronger

we can see that some companies in the industry have already started to eliminate

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI